Post-mortems drift into blame because leaders lack a shared evidence standard. Without a driver tree, variance math, and a place to attach proof, you cannot tell which cause mattered or who should act. The outcome is predictable: generic coaching, wider discounts, and another miss.
This article gives you a simple, repeatable framework your team can run in under two hours each month. It uses the same three branches every revenue team understands—volume, mix, and price—and pairs them with specific evidence and pre-built plays. You’ll finish with owners, due dates, and a loop to track results.
Step 1: Define the variance
Before you talk causes, lock down what actually missed.
- Metric: bookings, units, margin, or contribution?
- Baseline: plan, prior year, or rolling average?
- Magnitude & direction: absolute and percentage variance.
Example: August bookings were $1.2M, which is $180K (-13.0%) below Plan.
Tip: Freeze the numbers in a monthly variance sheet with timestamp and owner so debate happens on causes—not arithmetic.
Step 2: Build the driver tree
Keep it to three branches:
- Volume: Did we sell fewer units or close fewer deals?
- Mix: Did we sell a cheaper blend of SKUs/segments/channels?
- Price: Did realized prices fall vs baseline (discounts, promos, leakage)?
Worked example:
- Baseline: 10,000 units, $2.0M revenue.
- Actual: 9,200 units, $1.72M.
- Variance split: −$160K volume, −$60K mix, −$60K price.
Story from the field: In C-parts distribution, one quarter saw 8% fewer units shipped simply because order cycles stretched—customers delayed replenishment by a week. At the same time, mix shifted from high-margin stainless fasteners to lower-margin zinc screws, cutting another $40K.
In Division 10 hardware, a shift from premium chrome grab bars to entry-level brushed finishes delivered flat unit volume but a $50K revenue shortfall. Sure it’s related to the design, but you know what product to push, no?
Step 3: Set an evidence standard
Without proof, a driver tree is just a diagram. Decide upfront what counts:
- Volume evidence: funnel conversion by stage, pipeline coverage by segment, win/loss reasons, operational blockers like stock-outs or lead-time delays.
- Mix evidence: SKU share shifts ≥3 pts, channel drift, promotion calendars, assortment changes, inventory availability, call notes confirming preference for entry bundles.
- Price evidence: realized price vs list by SKU, discount distribution vs policy, competitive quotes where non-price factors were equal.
Step 4: From cause to fix with pre-built plays
Volume plays
- Stage-age purge: auto-close or recycle opps that have gone stale.
- Coverage top-off: assign 10 new target accounts per rep in segments below 2.5× coverage.
- Ops unblockers: publish a weekly “available-to-promise” list to counter supply delays.
Mix plays
- SKU focus list: publish 5 hero SKUs per segment with attach-rates and quick wins.
- Bundle nudge: add a preferred bundle to quotes with opt-out reason required.
- Assortment guardrails: de-emphasize low-margin SKUs in search results or proposals for 30 days.
Price plays
- Discount guardrail: require reason codes for discounts below floor.
- Pocket-margin indicator: show reps margin in CPQ; block quotes under threshold.
- Value proof inserts: add quantified outcomes (e.g., install time saved on Division 10 fixtures).
Step 5: Translate findings into a Root Cause Log
Example:
- Volume: conversion down 5 pts in mid-market accounts → stage-age purge + coverage top-off.
- Mix: share shifted into entry-level towel bars (+4 pts) → bundle nudge + assortment guardrails.
- Price: p90 discount on stainless fasteners widened from 15% → 24% → margin guardrail + weekly outlier review.
Every row has a finding, evidence link, play, owner, due date, and status.
Step 6: Close the loop
- Re-run monthly: same driver tree, updated numbers.
- Monitor thresholds: pipeline coverage <2.5×, SKU share drift ≥3 pts, p90 discount widening ≥3 pts.
- Publish wins: show screenshots where a play moved the number (e.g., SKU focus list lifted stainless fastener revenue by +$120K).
- Retire stale plays: if a play fails two cycles, replace it or escalate.
FAQs
Q: What’s the difference between mix and volume? Volume = units sold. Mix = proportion of high vs low value items. Mix can cut revenue even when units are flat.
Q: How often should we run this? Monthly, plus ad hoc after promos, packaging changes, competitor launches, or supply shocks.
Q: Can we swap margin for revenue? Yes—swap revenue for gross margin. For price, track pocket margin after discounts.
Final word
Missing plan isn’t a mystery—it’s a pattern you can decompose, prove, and fix. For C-parts distributors, Division 10 hardware suppliers, or any SKU-heavy business, volume, mix, and price explain almost every shortfall. With a driver tree, evidence rules, and pre-built plays, you replace blame with action and build a loop that compounds every month.